Tuesday, March 29, 2011

SYRIA: DAMASCUS Viewing cable 09DAMASCUS142,

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C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 000142 

SIPDIS 

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/PPD, AND PA 
LONDON FOR SREENBY AND TSOU 
PARIS FOR WALLER 
ABU DHABI FOR PELLETIER AND ESCROGIMA 
TREASURY FOR HAJJAR

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¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Washington's answer on Syria related questions -- our policy remains under review -- has all but ceded public discussion of our policy to the Syrian government.

As the Department proceeds with its review of U.S. policy toward Syria, the Syrian government's media manipulation of Congressional travel and the recently issued export licenses for civil aviation serve as a useful primer on how the Syrian government will seek to portray such decisions as changes in Administration policy and as victories for the Syrian regime. Our roll-out strategy on our new Syria policy should exploit the U.S.'s considerable advantage in the international and regional media. While the SARG's control over media inside Syria is near total and limits us locally, we will use all available resources, particularly Syria's only private newspaper al-Watan, to amplify Washington's message. We suggest talking points to put the ongoing review in the context of continuing day-to-day USG decisions regarding Syria. Messages directed at the Syrian people should be a component of any strategy. End Summary. 

---------------------------
 That Was Then 
---------------------------

¶2. (U) Until recently, the SARG has had few opportunities to manipulate positive U.S. policy pronouncements about it. A steady stream of critical statements from the White House and the State Department, coupled with cutting personal remarks by then-President Bush about President Asad, prompted the Syrians either to ignore Washington completely or indulge in revisionist history to deflect criticism. This was particularly true when Washington criticized the SARG for its human rights record. Those statements went completely unreported locally. When asked to comment on the dearth of media attention, Syrian media contacts made it clear the SARG viewed the statements as an irritant. Those same contacts, however, were swift to point out that the SARG viewed an absence of tough statements as a net positive. As three years of isolation came to a close, Syria's only privately owned newspaper, al-Watan, reflected the government's growing optimism that change was coming with a countdown to the inauguration in the upper left hand corner of the paper. It ran for more than 60 consecutive days and featured an unflattering photo of President Bush. 

¶3. (C) With three government-owned daily newspapers, two-state owned TV channels and several radio stations at its disposal, the SARG deploys its coordinated policy themes early every morning. While the Ministry of Information plays a role in this message formulation, it is the multiple branches of the intelligence services that ensure coordination of the SARG's public message. Inside Syria, al-Jazeera, the local favorite, and al-Arabiya are readily available via satellite. The SARG currently prohibits Sharq al-Awsat and al-Hayat from distributing their papers locally and their websites are blocked internally, though both maintain correspondents in Damascus. Journalists are constantly adapting to the SARG's shifting red lines, forcing even the most seasoned journalists to comment that reporting "was much simpler under Hafez al-Asad: we always knew where the red lines were." As a result, savvy journalists have become adept at self-censoring. Syria's internal repression of the IAEA investigation into Syrian nuclear activity is perhaps the best example of internal controls. As noted in ref A, prior to the IAEA's June visit to Syria, journalists were enjoined from reporting on the story locally and foreign journalists were not given visas to Syria during the period. In January 2009, U.S. Ambassador to UNVIE Schulte's blitzkrieg with the pan-Arab media went completely unreported inside Syria. 

------------------- 
. . . This is now
 ------------------- 

¶4. (C) Six months into the tenure of Presidential advisor Bouthaina Shaaban, Post has witnessed a remarkable up-tick in the amount and sophistication of Asad's interaction with western media outlets. During the Gaza crisis, Bouthaina masterminded the President's interviews with CNN and the BBC. The President's message, while consistent with his rhetoric in the Arab world, was made more palatable for western audiences. The 2/18 Guardian interview was published to coincide with the first of three successive Congressional delegations visiting Damascus. Wisely anticipating that visiting delegations might attach a cost to engagement with the U.S., the interview ensured that major headlines focused on Asad's openness to U.S. diplomatic re-engagement and not actions by the Syrians. 

¶5. (C) With a Syrian Ambassador to Washington who is desperate to remake his image with the new Administration and against the backdrop of a continuing U.S. policy review process, the SARG has capitalized by portraying the Obama Administration as actively pursuing engagement with the SARG. Ambassador Mustapha has wasted no time in leaking the travel of every Congressional delegation to Damascus in an effort to show the Legislative branch is actively courting the SARG. CODEL Smith, the first visit of the new Administration, traveled to Damascus January 30-31 and was heralded by local media as a "delegation dispatched by President Obama." Within hours of the CODEL's meeting with President Asad, SANA was already disseminating the Syrian version of events -- namely, that Congressman Smith had reaffirmed Syria's important role in the region and the new Administration's desire to develop U.S.-Syrian relations. With the CODEL continuing its schedule and therefore unavailable for comment, SANA's release was immediately picked up by local media. Smith's departure statement to international wires allowed him to emphasize the CODEL's message, but the SARG version, namely, that Smith was sent by President Obama, lingered in media reporting long after the CODEL departed Damascus. Smith corrected the record from Brussels, but the SARG's message went unchallenged for several days. 

¶6. (C) The export licenses recently issued by the Department of Commerce to Boeing to overhaul Syrian Air's two aging 747s provide another example of how the SARG is actively spinning technical level decisions into a broader policy narrative. After the U.S. Embassy confirmed to the Syrian MFA that the licenses had been issued, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdullah Dardari linked the lifting of sanctions to normalizing relations in a February 4 interview with Reuters. Absent any official comment from the Department on the licenses or on Dardari's assertions, the SARG continued to define the story. The Minister of Transportation held a press conference on February 9 to announce the licenses in which he asserted that the Obama Administration was softening the sanctions against the SARG. Presidential Advisor Shaaban continued the SARG's spin campaign from Doha on February 16 when she said "All sanctions levied against Syria are illegal under Syrian law." From Washington's perspective, the story was put to rest on February 13 during the press briefing, but it remains alive and well in Syria. The SARG actively encouraged the press to interpret the U.S. decision as an indicator of its consideration of lifting U.S. trade sanctions. For the next several days, members of the diplomatic and business community sought verification from Post of the change in policy. Most were genuinely surprised to learn that the export licenses had been issued within the provisions of existing U.S. legislation. 

---------------------------------------------------- 
Tempering the Spin Cycle: Getting Our Message Out ----------------------------------------------------- 

¶7. (C) Our public talking points on re-engagement with Syria should not cede the larger policy narrative to the SARG. In the absence of decisions about what our policies will entail, we believe it would be helpful to underscore areas of policy continuity between the two Administrations to make it clear to the Syrians what has changed, and more importantly, what has not. For example, in the context of engagement, we could point out that 264 export licenses were approved by the Department of Commerce in 2008. Each license issued was congruent with our existing sanctions policy. At the same time, we must clearly articulate that the review is a comprehensive one that will be made based on an assessment of whether any gestures from our side have prompted constructive steps by Syria. We might also make clear that our constitution establishes a separation of powers among the different branches of government. While the Administration is cognizant of the legislative branch's ongoing familiarization visits to Syria, the important point is that any overarching changes to U.S. policy will take place in the context of close coordination with Congress as we move forward. 

¶8. (S) A roll-out strategy could draw on statements from the podium, backgrounders and/or on-the-record interviews with international and pan-Arab media by senior officials in Washington, London or Dubai, interviews with VOA and al-Hurra, lines in public remarks by the Secretary, and cleared talking points for the regional media hubs, PAOs in the field, and other missions. A more detailed suggested strategy for a policy roll-out will be provided Septel. In the interim, Washington may wish to consider drawing on the following general suggested themes:

 -- There is an ongoing review of our policy with Syria. We are not ready to make a pronouncement, but both the Secretary and the President have said engagement will be a part of that policy. Decisions that have been taken recently are a part of routine business  -- they do not necessarily reflect changes now or in the future. -- Congressional delegations travel in order to inform themselves about world affairs, not because the Administration has dispatched them. Congress represents a separate, independent branch of government. -- Sanctions imposed under the Syrian Accountability Act allow for licenses in several categories including medical devices and supplies, parts and components for civil aviation safety of flight, and telecommunications equipment.-- Even as we take specific steps - such as calling in the Syrian Ambassador, executive branch travel, engaging Syria at a higher level, or the return of a U.S. Ambassador -- we will continue to have ongoing concerns about Syrian behavior that have not gone away because of a change in administrations. Those concerns include Lebanon and the need for the SARG to fully implement UNSCRs 1559 and 1701 and to cooperate fully with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon; Iraq and the continued flow of foreign fighters; and Syria's relationship with Hamas and Hizballah and other rejectionist groups that undermine international efforts to stabilize the Middle East. -- As we look at a new engagement with Syria, these issue will be important parts of our ongoing dialogue. 

¶9. (C) Locally, we will reinforce these themes message with key contacts on background. We can do some on-the-record work, but need Washington to clearly elucidate our policy in order to amplify it here locally. 

¶10. (C) Comment: The coming weeks present a unique opportunity to re-frame our narrative with Syria in U.S. terms. Not doing so will only continue to raise SARG expectations and be harmful to U.S. policy interests over the long term. We must be clear in our message and use all available resources to amplify it from the field if we are to counter the Syrian version of events. CONNELLY










http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/02/09DAMASCUS142.html

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SYRIA/DAMASCUS :Viewing cable 09DAMASCUS251, SYRIAN SCORE CARD: NO GRAND BARGAINS, BUT POSITIVE FIRST

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e.g., to discuss consular issues, like the Murad child abduction case.)

http://www.lycos.com/info/kidnapping--parents.html

http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/04/09DAMASCUS251.html
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 DAMASCUS 000251 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA NSC FOR SHAPIRO/MCDERMOTT PARIS FOR WALLER LONDON FOR TSOU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2029 TAGS: PREL KPAL PTER IZ LE IS SY
SUBJECT: SYRIAN SCORE CARD: NO GRAND BARGAINS, BUT POSITIVE FIRST 
STEPS REF: A. DAMASCUS 192 B. DAMASCUS 193 C. DAMASCUS 194 D. DAMASCUS 195 E. DAMASCUS 196 F. DAMASCUS 198 G. DAMASCUS 227 H. DAMASCUS 218 I. BAGHDAD 847 J. DAMASCUS 206 K. DAMASCUS 245 

Classified By: CDA Maura Connelly for reasons 1.4 b and d. 

¶1. (S/NF) 
Summary: Four weeks after Acting NEA A/S Feltman and NSC NENA Senior Director Shapiro met with Syrian FM Muallim (refs A-F), Syria has taken some positive steps to facilitate more normal Embassy operations, named an ambassador to Lebanon, and sent Muallim to Baghdad to discuss enhanced security cooperation. But Syria has not responded positively (nor, in the near term, is it likely to do so) to U.S. concerns about Syrian arms supplies to Hizballah, Syria's continuing support of Hamas at the expense of the Palestinian Authority, running foreign fighters in Syria, and maintaining close ties to Iran. From a Syrian perspective, U.S. "gives" include easing of export control restrictions on safety-of-flight technology, restoring more normal access to the Syrian ambassador in Washington, and making positive statements about the importance of engaging Syria. Syrian officials are waiting for signs that Washington will make Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations a priority, ease economic sanctions beyond just waiverable exceptions, and return an American ambassador to Damascus. Both sides can claim they have made positive (if token) gestures as an ante to another round of discussions, leaving ample room to pursue steps that would significantly improve prospects of acquiring a new and more secure U.S. embassy compound in Damascus. At this point, however, Syria is proceeding as cautiously as Washington. End Summary. 

-------------- 
Syrian "Gives"
 ------------- 

¶2. (S/NF) Keeping score with Syria can be a subjective task which may distract from two core questions: (1) what is it that we want; and (2) how do we know we're on the right track? Roughly a month into a period of re-engagement, both sides can claim they have taken positive gestures. However positive these steps might be, further Syrian actions are necessary to achieve U.S. objectives. From the Syrian side, we see some progress on: 

-- Embassy operations. On March 26, the Syrian MFA notified Embassy Damascus that the American Language Center could re-open; this "give" was in response to a specific request made by Acting A/S Feltman (Ref G). In addition, the Syrian MFA and its Embassy in Washington conducted a top-down review of some 70 pending official visa applications for U.S. CDS and TDY personnel and issued 35 of them in a short period time. These include visas for a New Embassy Compound team, which visited Syria March 23-27 and surveyed several alternative sites that were presented to the Syrian MFA. (Since the initial review, approximately 70 additional U.S. visa applications have been submitted.) 

-- Iraq: Embassy sources reported FM Muallim's plans to propose enhanced security cooperation with Iraqi leaders during a March 25-26 trip to Baghdad (ref H). According to Embassy Baghdad, Muallim pitched the idea of enhanced information sharing through established liaison channels (ref I). These actions, while positive, do not translate into actions against foreign fighter networks in Syria. Nor do they necessarily represent a desire to address key Iraqi security concerns. But Muallim's trip may provide a basis 

DAMASCUS 00000251 002 OF 005 

for exploring a trilateral U.S.-Iraqi-Syrian security dialogue. 

-- Hamas: While it is difficult to tell how much effort Damascus is expending to moderate Hamas's position in ongoing Palestinian reconciliation talks with the PA, it appears that Hamas is no nearer to adopting Quartet principles than it was on March 7. In advance of the March 29-30 Arab League Summit in Doha, the Syrian MFA was telling the Embassy informally that Syria viewed the U.S. insistence on Quartet principles as unrealistic (ref J). 

-- Iran: Asad continues to assert the importance of Syria's relations with Iran and even tried to promote Iran's friendly intentions toward the Arab world during the March 29-30 Arab League Summit in Doha. At the same time, Syria has clearly pursued a strategy to reduce intra-Arab tensions over Iran by acquiescing in a very public reconciliation with Saudi Arabia and with Bashar al-Asad's tour of Gulf states after the Doha summit. 

-- Lebanon: The March 25 announcement of the appointment of a Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon (and Lebanese agrement) represented an overdue payment of President Asad's September 2008 commitment to French President Sarkozy to send an ambassador to Lebanon by the end of 2008. Otherwise, the picture remains mixed. In several press interviews, Bashar's rhetoric has not varied far from the markers established by FM Muallim on March 7: Syria supports a sovereign and independent Lebanon and favors June 7 legislative elections be held on time, in a peaceful and democratic manner. Hizballah, Bashar maintains, represents a legitimate resistance movement and cannot be disarmed absent a comprehensive peace framework. While there is anecdotal evidence suggesting Syria is trying to restrain Hizballah from revenging Imad Mugniyah's February 2008 assassination, there are also signs that Syria is facilitating delivery of weapons to Hizballah that could provoke Israel to strike. Some observers have cast Bashar's recent remarks on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (politicization of the Tribunal will result in destabilization of Lebanon) as a (barely) concealed threat. Syrian officials continue to argue in favor of a national unity government as the only guarantee for post-election stability in Lebanon; they claim French, Saudi, Egyptian, and UK support for this position. 

-- Peace talks with Israel: Syria continues to express an interest in resuming indirect peace talks with Israel, but Bashar has remarked in a recent interview that any future peace deal with Israel would not extend to matters outside Syria's borders. Hizballah, Hamas, and Iran, he said, would have to be dealt with in comprehensive peace talks. At the March 29-30 Arab League Summit, Asad proposed language that would "de-activate" the Arab Peace Initiative (API) until Israel accepted it. This plan failed to gain support, but represents ongoing dissatisfaction with continuing to hold out the API in the wake of the Gaza crisis. 

-- Murad Case: In response to Acting A/S Feltman's request for Syrian attention to this case, the MFA head of Consular Affairs received Charge and CONGEN in the first such meeting in four years (ref K). Though previous U.S. ambassadors have raised this case with FM Muallim, and the Department with Syrian Ambassador to the U.S. Imad Mustafa, the most recent Syrian response is "this is the first time we have heard of this case." Post will continue to pursue the matter and believes the MFA opening offers an opportunity, but thus far the Syrian government has shown little inclination to do more than going through the motions on this case. 

-------------------------- 
Syria's View of the Ledger
 -------------------------- 

¶3. (S/NF) Syrians, too, are keeping a tally of "asks" and

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"gives," exercising care not to attach too much value to U.S. gestures or do anything that would drive up the price of what they want. Syrian officials credit the Obama Administration's positive rhetoric, including towards Iran, with establishing a more constructive environment. MFA officials have told us that Syrian Ambassador Moustafa's more regular contacts with NEA have made it easier to grant Embassy appointment requests (e.g., to discuss consular issues, like the Murad child abduction case.) Charge's request to make an introductory call on D/PM Abdullah Dardari, a normal ambassadorial-level contact, was deflected with an MFA-engineered appointment with a lower-ranking official. (Charge is holding out for Dardari.) Acting A/S Feltman's follow-up on a pending export license matter related to a safety-of-flight request was happily received (and MFA officials acknowledge the action is now in their court, a rarity in and of itself.) 

¶4. (S) While Syrian officials are wary of mentioning it, Embassy contacts suggest that the government here is waiting for more substantive gestures from Washington, such as: 

-- Further discussions on how to revive the Golan track. While official rhetoric has sought to play down Syria's eagerness, we have heard informally that there is a strong desire for the U.S. to signal its willingness to engage on renewed Israeli-Syrian negotiations. Some Embassy contacts suggest the regime is waiting to see whether and how the U.S. broaches this subject with the new Israeli government as an indicator of Washington's real intentions. Many Syrians see the absence of a stop in Damascus on Senator Mitchell's initial "listening" trips to the region as a contradiction of the President's statements regarding engagement. While Syrians have not asked for a Mitchell visit explicitly, the lack of one has become even more irksome after Special Envoy Holbrooke's recent hand-shake with his Iranian counterpart in the Hague. 

-- More flexibility on export licenses: The Embassy has seen a dramatic upswing in the number of Syrian and foreign businesses seeking our advice for medical equipment and software, primarily Oracle software. 

-- The possibility of waivers under existing sanctions: FM Muallim and others warmly received Acting A/S Feltman's pledge not to use safety-of-flight technology as a political lever. Now, however, Syrians with a working knowledge of Syrian Air's desperate need for new planes are asking how far away the USG might be from considering waiver requests to the Syria Accountability Act's ban on sale of products with more than 10 percent content of U.S. origin.

 -- An ambassador: Though FM Muallim studiously avoided any mention of the return of a U.S. ambassador to Damascus in March 7 discussions with Acting A/S Feltman, many Syrian contacts view this deliverable as the key to unlocking more normalized relations, which would include re-opening the American Cultural Center, the Damascus Community School, and permission to purchase land and build a New Embassy Compound. 
–
------------------------------------------ 
No Grand Bargain, But Positive Steps Possible -------------------------------------------- 
¶5. (S/NF) Given the length and bitterness of the U.S.-Syrian stand off, the relatively short period that has passed since renewal of engagement, and Syria's propensity to withhold deliverables from even its friends until the last possible moment, Washington would be wise to manage its expectations about Syria's intentions. At the same time, given Syria's potential to assist and/or damage U.S. regional interests, there is value in continuing to explore how far the Syrians are willing to go. 

¶6. (S/NF) Since March 7, both sides can point to positive 

DAMASCUS 00000251 004 OF 005 

gestures they have taken as indicators of their good will. Both sides can also point to valuable deliverables held in reserve by the other in order to guard against taking premature steps that the other side might pocket without reciprocity. From the Embassy's admittedly parochial, security-focused perspective, the easiest and least politicized next steps would involve further normalization of operations of embassies in Damascus and Washington. Showing a willingness to expand Ambassador Mustafa's access, demonstrating greater flexibility on application of export licensing requirements under current sanctions, and moving forward with the selection process for an ambassador would signal our seriousness. We believe Syria should understand Washington's intent to initiate these moves in exchange for a restoration of normalcy here (to include cooperation in selecting and buying a site for a New Embassy Compound, fully re-opening the Cultural Affairs Center, and, under specific conditions, re-opening the American School.) Once the outlines of such a deal become clear, we fully expect the Syrian regime to complicate the discussions by introducing new demands that will require high-level Washington attention. 

¶7. (S/NF) Substantively, the Syrians are trying to convince us and Baghdad that the door is open to greater security cooperation, and we should pursue test cases to probe their seriousness. Though we should not expect the Syrian regime to comply with all of our requests, the U.S. might propose a trilateral meeting with the Iraqi government at the appropriate levels to see if a more formal mechanism might be established to strengthen border security and pursue foreign fighters. Such a proposal would be consistent with Muallim's remarks during his meeting with Acting A/S Feltman and Senior Director Shapiro. 

¶8. (S/NF) Beyond Iraq, we doubt Syria is willing to do more than talk about Hizballah, Hamas, and Iran. We can and should use our expanded access to Syrian officials to raise concerns about potential destabilizing consequences of Syria's harmful association with these actors. The U.S. can do more to press Syria to use its influence as a restraint on specific destabilizing actions by Hizballah and Hamas (e.g., avenging Imad Mughniyah's death and ending rocket attacks in Gaza).
 
----------------------------- 
Bigger Carrots, Bigger Sticks 
----------------------------- 

¶9. (S/NF) Our best estimate is that, beyond regime survival, the Syrian regime values most its prestige and re-asserting the regional influence it perceives itself to have lost in the last decade. President Asad's rhetoric and his private remarks suggest he attaches a high value to U.S. involvement in peace talks with Israel, and we should put this rhetoric to the test. Asad and some of his advisors continue to express a desire for better relations with the U.S. and we believe they want to avoid a return to the dark days of confrontation with Washington. We are also hearing from a range of well-connected business contacts that Syria urgently wants to purchase civilian passenger planes and would benefit greatly from a U.S. campaign to assure foreign and U.S. banks that dealing with private, unsanctioned Syrian banks is acceptable. 

¶10. (S/NF) We recognize it may be premature to suggest Washington consideration of whether, when, and how to deploy such incentives. We believe, however, that signaling U.S. openness to promoting a peace deal between Israel and Syria will undercut Syrian justifications for fomenting violence in the name of resistance to Israeli occupation. At the same time, promoting a substantive negotiation with Israel will provide some incentives that could act as a check on Syria's worst impulses in Gaza and elsewhere. If Washington is serious about convincing Syria to alter its relations with Hizballah, Hamas and Iran, we believe the key to success will 
DAMASCUS 00000251 005 OF 005 

be attracting the Syrian regime's attention to the unique benefits that, under the right conditions, engagement with the U.S. might ultimately produce, such as more profitable and friendly relations with Iraq, new civilian aircraft, rescinding the Executive Order designating the Commercial Bank of Syria, and ending Israel's 42-year occupation of the Golan. CONNELLY

AFGHANISTAN/LONDON : wing cable 09LONDON2543, BRITISH SUPPORT FOR AFGHANISTAN WAR DROPS ON EVE

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SUBJECT: BRITISH SUPPORT FOR AFGHANISTAN WAR DROPS ON EVE 
OF U.S. DECISION 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: The murder of five British police trainers by a rogue Afghan officer, the unsatisfying conclusion to the Afghan election, public challenges to UK policy by leading politicians, and a wave of wrenching television interviews with grieving family members this week combined to dampen British public opinion on Afghanistan.  According to one poll, Britons believing UK troops should be withdrawn immediately has risen from 25 to 35 percent over the last two weeks.  Against the backdrop of a Labour government down in the polls and President Obama's widely covered deliberations on the McChrystal report, commentary from leading media is increasingly skeptical on the war.  Some key editors are hinting that their publications, hitherto strongly supporting the war, are on the verge of turning around.  This same group is closely watching the debate in the U.S. End Summary.  

Hard Numbers ------------  

¶2. (U) Three separate recent polls, all showing increased public opposition to the war, have received extensive media coverage this week. Two of the polls compare data month to month, while the third gives a snapshot of public opinion. The most recent poll conducted by ComRes/BBC on Nov 4-5 found that 64 percent of the public think the war is unwinnable. This compares closely to a poll conducted by YouGoV/Channel 4 on the same dates which found 57 percent think victory is not possible. The ComRes/BBC poll also found 63 percent believe British troops should be withdrawn as quickly as possible. This is a 21 percent increase over the 42 percent of respondents calling for an immediate pullout in a July 10-11 Guardian/BBC Newsnight poll. The YouGov/Channel poll found a lower figure of 35 percent calling for immediate withdrawal, but that is a 10 percent increase from the same poll conducted just two weeks earlier. A third poll, conducted by Populus/Times and focusing on British voters in mid-October, found that 36 percent believe British troops should be withdrawn immediately, an increase of seven percent from their poll in mid-September. Because this poll targets voters, it is likely to resonate strongly with politicians in the run-up to the May 2010 general elections.  

Editorial Support Eroding -------------------------  

¶3. (SBU) The war in Afghanistan has long been viewed as "the good war" by the editors of Britain's leading publications. Some have quibbled over the execution of the war and support offered to troops, but The Times, The Guardian, The Telegraph, The Economist, The Sun and The Daily Mail have all, until recently, held the editorial line that NATO should be in Afghanistan.  But recent events have shaken their certainty.  Reporting and commentary over the weekend show that Prime Minister Brown's quickly organized speech at the Royal College of Defence Studies (11/6), in which he spelled out the UK's reasons for continuing in Afghanistan, did little to shore up support. The speech was followed by a session in the House of Lords where three former defence cheifs criticized Brown for providing insufficient support for the troops in Afghanistan. The next day, Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond called for a reassessment of the UK's role in the war, including "the possibility of withdrawal." The Sun has reversed its earlier support for the Brown government and is running articles sharply critical of the government's prosecution of the war, as is the Daily Telegraph. An editor from the Economist told an embassy official last week that opinion at the Economist on Afghanistan was "on a knife's edge," heading from positive to negative.  

¶4. (U) The Independent, who said on 11/7 that the case for withdrawal was not overwhelming, changed its mind last weekend and wrote on 11/9 that "It is time... for a change in policy.  It is time to say that this war is ill conceived, unwinnable and counterproductive.  It is time to start planning a phased withdrawal of British troops." Peter Beaumont, the Observer's foreign affairs editor wrote on 11/9: "Why are we fighting in Afghanistan? I ask because I am no longer sure. And not being sure, like a majority of Britons, I cannot conceive what victory might look like. That makes me think we should not be there."  The commentary was balanced with a piece in favor of remaining written by Jason Burke, the paper's expert on Al Qaeda. Still, Burke's call for continued engagement is not likely to resonate with the UK public: "...we have in place the strategy that we should have had years ago... But will this strategy work? Probably not." Max Hastings, one of the UK's most respected conservative commentators, formally called for a UK withdrawal in an editorial in the Daily Mail on 11/6  LONDON 00002543  002 OF 002   entitled, 'An Unwinnable War.'  Hastings had previously called for an increase in troop levels to support NATO's objectives.  

Media Says Whitehall Looks to Washington ----------------------------------------  

¶5. (U) The continued policy review in Washington is seen by some commentators as contributing to a sense of drift.  The Daily Telegraph warned on 11/6 that the absence of a clear strategy from the U.S. is threatening the mission, creating increasing frustration in Whitehall, and hampering HMG's attempts to maintain public support for an increasingly unpopular conflict. The Guardian (11/7) reported that, "Across the alliance, unhappiness within the mission is palpable. The longer Obama ponders, the stronger political and public opposition is likely to grow." The Times reported that Brown's speech at the Royal College of Defence Studies came, "amid increasing impatience among British defence chiefs and diplomats at President Obama's slowness in deciding a new tactic for Afghanistan."  Visit London's Classified Website: XXXXXXXXXXXX 
Susman



http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/11/09LONDON2543.html

IRAN / US :Viewing cable 09LONDON2382, IRAN/AMERICAN DETAINEES: HMG UNABLE TO PROVIDE

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DE RUEHLO #2382 2941356
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 211356Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3775
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM IMMEDIATE 0614
C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 002382 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/IR AND CA/OCS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PROP PTER CASC IR UK
SUBJECT: IRAN/AMERICAN DETAINEES: HMG UNABLE TO PROVIDE 
DIRECT ASSISTANCE  REF: A. A. STATE 94757      B. B. LONDON 2178  Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Greg Berry, reasons 1.4 (b)  and (d).  

¶1. (C) Following up on her September 16 meeting (ref B) with Helen Teasdale of the Foreign and Commonwealth's Iran office, London Iran Watcher asked if HMG had made a decision regarding raising the issue of American detainees with the Iranian government.  Teasdale explained the U.S. request for assistance had been discussed both in London and with the UK mission in Tehran.  Given the very limited access the UK currently has to the Iranian government and the tense bilateral relationship between the two countries (especially in the wake of the October 18 suicide bombing in Baluchistan, for which the Iranian regime has publicly blamed the UK), as well as HMG's continued concern over its local staff members detained after the June elections, HMG is not in a position to provide direct assistance on the issue of the American detainees.  Teasdale suggested the U.S. instead approach the Swedish government in its capacity as EU president for help. She noted the Swedes enjoy regular access to the Iranian government, and likely would be in a better position to offer assistance.  HMG would fully support a Swedish-led EU approach to the Iranian regime on behalf of the United States.  Visit London's Classified Website: XXXXXXXXXXXX 
SUSMAN
...



http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/10/09LONDON2382.html

ISRAEL/ MIDDLE EAST: Viewing cable 09LONDON2638, FOREIGN OFFICE MIDDLE EAST TEAM LEAD ON ISREAL RELATED UN RESOLUTIONS REF: A. REF A STATE 118799 B. REF B LONDON 2595

VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLO #2638 3281658
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 241658Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4074
INFO RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0612
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 0333
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1516
C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 002638 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
IO/UNP FOR ANDREW MORRISON, NEA/IPA FOR JEFF GIAUQUE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019 
TAGS: PREL UNGA KPAL IS UK
SUBJECT: FOREIGN OFFICE MIDDLE EAST TEAM LEAD ON ISREAL RELATED UN RESOLUTIONS  REF: A. REF A STATE 118799      B. REF B LONDON 2595   

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR GREG BERRY FOR REASONS  1.4 (B) AND (D).  

¶1. (C//NF) Poloff had an introductory call with Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)  Levant team leader Nishi Dholakia on November 20.  Poloff used the opportunity to reinforce Washington,s points on resolutions against Israel (ref A) which were previously delivered to the FCO International Organization Department,s UN Team (ref B).  

No Change of Position Without Progress -------------------------------------------  

¶2. (C//NF) Dholakia confirmed what we heard from his colleagues in the IO Department in terms of HMG,s agreement with the U.S. evaluation of the Goldstone report and on the FCO,s position that an abstention was &less confrontational8 with Arab States.  He also stressed that until such time as there is &real progress8 on peace process negotiations HMG will not change its voting on any resolution similar to one on which it had voted previously. To do so would send a &clear sign of approval for Netanyahu,8 which HMG had no intention of giving, particularly in the wake of Israel,s announcement of 900 new tenders for housing units in Gilo, he added.  

EU Unity a Priority -------------------  

¶3. (C//NF) Dholakia indicated that in addition to continuing to vote as they have in the past that seeking and hopefully maintaining EU unity on these issues remained a top FCO priority.  There was a &widely held belief8 that the perceived split among EU member state,s reactions to Goldstone was &quite harmful.8   A conscious effort is being made to mend the rift and to avoid such divergences in the future.  

U.S. Leading the Way ------------------------  

¶4. (C//NF) Dholakia made it clear that HMG is &looking to the U.S.8 to really &take the lead8 on moving the negotiations forward, adding that the FCO hopes that any return to negotiations will be accompanied by a &very strong statement of USG involvement8 and at least &some articulation regarding a vision of the end game.8  Visit London's Classified Website: XXXXXXXXXXXX   
Susman




http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/11/09LONDON2638.html

SYRIA: Viewing cable 09LONDON2626, UK, WITH EU PARTNERS, TO CONDEMN SYRIA AT IAEA

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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLO #2626/01 3271713
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 231713Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4058
C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 002626 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR ISN/RA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019 
TAGS: PARM IAEA KNNP SY IR UK
SUBJECT: UK, WITH EU PARTNERS, TO CONDEMN SYRIA AT IAEA 
BOARD OF GOVERNORS MEETING 
 
REF: SECSTATE 119161  Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Gregory Berry for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).  

¶1. (C/NF) Summary: The UK is in full agreement with reftel points concerning Syria and will, with EU Partners, issue a statement condemning Syria for its lack of cooperation with the IAEA at the Board of Governors (BOG) meeting on November 26-27.  While the UK has on previous reports lobbied non-EU states on Syria, the UK will not do so this time and will instead focus on Iran.  The UK may, however, lobby non-EU states after the Board of Governors meeting.  See para 6 for the full text of the draft EU statement on Syria.  End Summary.  

¶2. (C/NF) Poloff delivered reftel demarche to Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) Counter-Proliferation Department Regional Issues Desk Officer Duncan Johnson on November 23. Johnson indicated that HMG was in full agreement with USG policy with regard to Syria and the IAEA, calling the recent IAEA report on Syria "dreadful" and noting that the Syrians were probably being less cooperative than the Iranians.  

¶3. (C/NF) Johnson said that the UK, together with EU Partners, would issue a "quite strong" statement condemning Syria for its failure to cooperate with IAEA inspectors and urging it to reform and cooperate fully with the Agency at the IAEA Board of Governors (BOG) meeting on November 26-27. See para 6 for the full text of the draft statement.  

¶4. (C/NF) Johnson said that on previous IAEA reports on Iran and Syria, the UK had lobbied non-EU states, notably those in the Non-Aligned Movement, pointing out the seriousness of both countries' offenses and asking states to issue condemnations of Syrian and Iranian actions.  Johnson said that on this particular report, the UK was working to lobby non-EU states on Iran and would not be lobbying on Syria. Johnson cited differences in France and Germany's thinking on Syria, the European push for rapprochement with Syria, and the FCO's Syria desk's attempts to win the Syrians over on the Middle East peace process as reasons for not lobbying strongly on Syria on this report.  Johnson did say, however, that the UK might take follow-up action on Syria after the BOG meeting, which could include lobbying non-EU countries.  

¶5. (C/NF) Johnson said that the UK was preparing notes for the new IAEA DG noting the need to "keep the foot on the pedal" with regard to pressing Syria to cooperate with the IAEA.  Johnson said that the UK had also, in the past, spoken to states like Turkey and asked them to talk to the Syrians privately and attempt to convince them that it was in their interest to cooperate with IAEA inspectors.  Johnson said, however, that the UK had not had such conversations with regard to the most recent report.  6. (C/NF) Johnson provided the text of a final draft EU statement on Syria, to be delivered at the IAEA BOG meeting on November 26-27:  Begin Text:  International Atomic Energy Agency Final Draft  Agenda item 4 (d) Implementation of the NPT-safeguards agreement in the Syrian Arab Republic   Mr. Chairman,  1.    I have the honour to speak on behalf of the European Union. (The candidate countries Croatia, the former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia and Turkey, the Countries of the Stabilization and Association process and potential candidates Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia, the EFTA countries Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, members of the European Economic Area, as well as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, associate themselves with this statement).  2.    The European Union thanks the Director General for his report on the Implementation of NPT Safeguards Agreement in Syria (document GOV/2009/75).  The EU commends the DG and the Secretariat for their continuing efforts to clarify all outstanding issues with Syria.  3.    The EU is concerned about the lack of progress to clarify these issues in the implementation of Syria,s safeguards agreement.   4.    Syria has still not provided information or access that would allow the Agency to confirm Syria,s statements regarding the non-nuclear nature of the destroyed building on the Dair Alzour site.  There has been no cooperation on the part of the Syria to enable the Agency to determine the origin of the anthropogenic natural uranium particles, of a type not included in Syria,s declared inventory, found at the Dair Alzour site.  The Agency has not been allowed access to locations and documentation as requested for this purpose.  Syria has also failed to substantiate its claims that certain procurement efforts were related to civilian activities.  There has been no willingness on the part of Syria to engage in substantive discussions with the IAEA.  5.    The results of the samples taken in July at the Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (MNSR) in Damascus do not support Syria,s earlier explanation for the origin and presence of the anthropogenic natural uranium particles, of a type not in Syria,s declared inventory, found there.  Lately Syria has identified other possible sources to the anthropogenic natural uranium particles.  These explanations, however, need to be investigated further by the Agency.  The EU supports the Agency,s efforts in this regard and hopes that the activities carried out during the inspection of 17 November did not provide the clarification sought.  Mr. Chairman,  6.    Refusal to cooperate will not do.  Safeguards Agreements must be implemented in full.  It is the obligation of each state with a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement in force to declare all its nuclear installments and material and to report on any new nuclear facility to the Agency once the decision on its construction is taken.  7.    The EU thus urges Syria to cooperate with the Agency in order to ensure that safeguards are applied to all source and special fissionable material subject to Syria,s Safeguards Agreement.  In the absence of the necessary co-operation with the IAEA the completeness and correctness of Syria,s declarations under its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement would clearly remain in doubt.  8.    The EU understands Syria,s concerns about the sensitivity of information and locations in a site of a declared military nature, but would like to remind Syria that this does not preclude investigations by the Agency.  The EU is convinced that it will be possible for Syria and the Agency to establish the necessary modalities that will enable the Agency to proceed with its verification while protecting sensitive military information.  9.    The EU calls upon Syria to sign and ratify the Additional Protocol as soon as possible as a means to strengthen the confidence of the international community about the peaceful nature of Syria,s nuclear activities.  10.   The EU acknowledges the Director General,s request to other Member States, which may possess information relevant to the verification of Syria,s Safeguards Agreement, especially on the issue of Dair Alzour, to provide the Agency with all such information.  Thank you, Mr. Chairman.  End Text.  Visit London's Classified Website: XXXXXXXXXXXX 
Susman





http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/11/09LONDON2626.html